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Chapter Sixteen. The Numbers Nobody Agrees On. Reasoning Carefully Under Deep Uncertainty The probability estimates for catastrophic artificial intelligence risk range widely, and that range is itself important information. This chapter is about how to think clearly when the stakes are high and the data is thin. In 1983, a Soviet engineer named Stanislav Petrov was the duty officer at a Soviet nuclear early warning facility outside Moscow when the system reported that the United States had la

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