What does the science say?
A study by Montagna and colleagues shows that the probability of winning a point decreases as the serve’s advantage diminishes and the rally gets longer. This supports the idea of how important the first shot after the opponent’s return is in winning the point.
Speaking of points, let me introduce another great piece of tennis research. Jeff Sackmann has been collecting data on tennis matches for many years, and it is publicly available on his website under the name T